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Weekend Box Office - June 25-27, 2010
Written by US Townhall staff   
Monday, 28 June 2010 23:07

Toy Story 3 (Image © 2010 Disney-Pixar)Toy Story 3 held on to the top spot for a second week with no problem from either of the two big releases.  Adam Sandler's latest, Grown Ups, fared much better with audiences than Tom Cruise's Knight and Day, which reunited him with his Vanilla Sky costar, Cameron Diaz.  It would appear that Mr. Cruise is still suffering from the "Michael Jackson effect," and that the public has turned its back on him due to his overly-publicized behavior from a full five years ago now.  In Michael Jackson's case, the international audience never deserted him no matter what was being written about him in the tabloids, so we'll see how Knight and Day fares in foreign markets to see if Tom Cruise is as fortunate.  Right now on the domestic front, however, it's definitely not good news for 20th Century Fox, the film's distributor, that Cruise opened at number 3 for the week behind an Adam Sandler comedy.

 

Among holdovers, all movies were down between 44% and 70%, with Shrek Forever After and the critically-derided and audience-ignored Jonah Hex at the low and high ends, respectively.  Thus far this summer, only Iron Man 2 and Toy Story 3 have had box office sales that met industry expectations.  Box office was down again this week as compared to the same weekend last year, but all that could change this weekend if the latest Twilight flick, Eclipse, does as well as it should. 

 

More of a question mark, however, is the latest from director M. Night Shyamalan, The Last Airbender.  Trailers have been exciting and have made this film look as visually draw dropping as the animated series (Avatar: The Last Airbender) that it is derived from, but how much recognition does this Nickelodeon cartoon series have with the general public, and is it smart to release it opposite Twilight and a still-strong Toy Story 3?

 

 

Here are the domestic box office actuals for the weekend of June 25-27, 2010: 

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Weekend Box Office - June 18-20, 2010
Written by US Townhall staff   
Monday, 21 June 2010 16:20

Toy Story 3 (Image © 2010 Disney-Pixar)As expected, Disney-Pixar's latest, Toy Story 3, grabbed the top spot with the second $100+ million dollar weekend of the summer after Iron Man 2.  Also as expected, the fact that Toy Story 3 played on thousands of 3-D screens led to Shrek Forever After taking a huge hit in its box office as Shrek was displaced on those screens by Woody and Buzz Lightyear.  Shrek was down 64.4% in its fifth weekend, which was the largest drop in the top 12.  At this rate, the so-called "final chapter" will likely not reach $250 million in domestic box office, making this installment by far the least attended in the franchise.  Looks like the big green guy will be going out with a whimper instead of a bang.

 

Jonah Hex, the other film that opened wide this weekend couldn't even begin with a bang and will likely disappear from theaters with most of the public never having known it was there in the first place.  Jonah shot itself in the foot with a dismal $5.3 million debut against an estimated $47 million production budget.  This will undoubtedly be the lowest grossing movie based on a DC Comics character since 1997's Steel (although that embarassment only grossed a total of $1.7 million at theaters during its entire run, which only lasted about 2 weeks).  Originally, Warner Bros. buried this movie in the August release month, but for some reason decided to switch it to mid-June perhaps as counterprogramming to the more family-oriented fare playing now.  They should have stuck to their original plan because now Jonah Hex has gotten lots of attention as being a high-profile bomb, which will severely damage its future DVD sales as well.

 

Among the holdovers, Prince of Persia had the smallest drop – only about 14% – in its fourth weekend, but it's still unlikely to crack the $100 million barrier domestically.  However, it still continues to perform exceptionally well overseas with more than 72% of its total box office coming from foreign territories.  Last week's champ, The Karate Kid, retreated over 46%, but still lifted its 10 day total to more than $107 million.  It's quite possible that, if future weekends show smaller drops, Jaden Smith could have a $200 million domestic blockbuster on his hands.

 

Toy Story 3 gave a big boost to the box office this weekend and made a significant gain over the same weekend last year.  It remains to be seen, however, whether this positive turnaround we've experienced for the last two weekends will continue.  This Friday's new releases are Knight and Day, the new Tom Cruise-Cameron Diaz action flick, and Grown Ups, the new comedy starring Adam Sandler and his buddies, Kevin James, David Spade, Chris Rock, and Rob Schneider.  Cruise has had a rough few years at the box office in the wake of his unfairly hammered couch-jumping appearance on Oprah, and the ads for Sandler's latest don't seem to promise the raunchy Hangover-style laughs that his core audience has come to expect.  Both flicks could open below expectations.

 

Here are the domestic box office actuals for the weekend of June 18-20, 2010: 

 

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Weekend Box Office - June 11-13, 2010
Written by US Townhall staff   
Tuesday, 15 June 2010 02:10

The Karate Kid (2010) (Image © 2010, Sony Pictures)After the last several weeks of lackluster movie sales, the box office got a significant boost by the surprisingly high debut of the remake of The Karate Kid starring Jaden Smith and Jackie Chan.  At least we were surprised.  Internally, we thought that it would debut in the mid-20 million dollar range (as the A-Team remake did), so we were quite shocked to see an extremely healthy $55.6 million domestic open.  If this does well overseas, this could be the breakout hit of the summer.  As it is, assuming attendance doesn't drop drastically, it appears that the younger Mr. Smith will be on his way to joining his father as summer blockbuster king.  Even better is that the film was made on a production budget of $40 million, which means that it will definitely turn a profit based on box office receipts alone.  Expect pre-production on the sequel to begin immediately.

 

In contrast, the news for the remake of The A-Team was all bad.  Not only did it manage an unimpressive $25 million debut, but it was made on a production budget of $110 million.  This means that it would need to gross $220 million just to break even on box office sales.  If the executive who greenlit this bomb is still working at Fox, he or she should perhaps start updating his or her résumé. 

 

Two other movies are showing interesting trends at the box office, and those are The Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time and Sex and the City 2.  What's interesting is that while neither of these movies is exactly setting the domestic box office on fire, they are performing spectacularly well overseas.  In addition to the ho-hum $72 million domestic take of Persia, it has also grossed a staggering $190 million in foreign markets for a worldwide total approaching $300 million.  On the distaff side, Sex and the City 2 has proven to be a disappointment locally and may not even reach $100 million, but outside the US and Canada, the gals have hauled in an additional $132 million.  This very much mirrors the behavior of the first film where a full 64% of its worldwide gross came from foreign markets.

 

As for the four movies that opened last week, none of them proved to have any holdover with each dropping about 50%.  Splicers, however, dropped a full 60%, which is normal for a horror genre flick that fails to catch on with the larger audience.  Shrek Forever After, meanwhile, was finally kicked out of the top spot after three weeks, but is still holding on relatively well, down a relatively modest 38% in its fourth weekend.  However, next week's premiere of Toy Story 3 will change that dramatically as Shrek may lose many of the 3-D theaters it had in favor of the return of the old Pixar favorite.

 

Next week, in addition to the aforementioned Toy Story 3 comes the debut of the fourth comic book movie of the summer (after Kick-Ass, The Losers, and Iron Man), Jonah Hex.  Josh Brolin stars as the disfigured bounty hunter cowboy from the American Old West.  Megan Fox, recently fired from the Transformers franchise co-stars.  We don't think the race will even be close between the two.  The real story is how The Karate Kid will fare as the family audience undoubtedly flocks to see the return of Woody and Buzz Lightyear.

 

Also, in this lackluster summer, can Toy Story 3 muster enough muscle to secure an opening weekend in excess of $100 million?  We'll find out next week at this time.

 

 

Here are the domestic box office actuals for the weekend of June 11-13, 2010: 

Click here to see the box office chart for June 11-13, 2010...
 
Weekend Box Office - June 4-6, 2010
Written by US Townhall staff   
Tuesday, 08 June 2010 00:35

Image © 2010 Dreamworks Animation SKGLast week, we predicted that Shrek Forever After could hold on for a third week at the top even if it fell 40% because none of the four major releases being planned had guaranteed wide audience appeal.  Almost exactly as we stated, Shrek did land in the winner's circle once again, with a drop that was close to what we thought.  Falling 41.2% in its third week, Shrek Forever After managed almost $25.5 million at the box office, easily taking the top spot.

 

Among the four major new releases, none set the world on fire, but Get Him to the Greek proved to be the victor.  Even better for its distributor, Universal Studios, is that, although Greek's $17.6 million take is relatively modest, the movie's production budget was only $40 million.  Now, this means that the movie needs about $80 million just to break even, which this will not do, but it will still fare better than Ashton Kutcher's latest, Killers, which only openend with $15.8 million against a $75 million budget – this puts the film's breakeven at $150 millon, which it will not get anywhere near. 

 

Kutcher is plugged into the center of Hollywood and seems to be everywhere, but his track record at the box office has not reflected the hype around him at all.  No movie that he's ever been the star of has grossed more than $80 million domestically – this being 2008's What Happens in Vegas, which ended its domestic run at $80.3 million.  However, it did do better overseas, which allowed it to amass a final global box office of about $220 million.  The difference was that the concept and tone of Vegas was a lot more clear to audiences as compared to Killers, and Vegas has the added advantage of costing only $35 million to produce.  This meant that Vegas was able to make back its production cost based only on its domestic box office.

 

The latest comic strip animal to leap to the big screen as a CGI adaptation, Marmaduke, came in below most other entries in this sub-genre such as the Garfield films or Alvin and the Chipmunks.  Any sequel to Marmaduke is likely to go straight to video.  Adrien Brody's scifi/horror flick, Splice, was dead on arrival and will not have a shot at the $60 million it would take to recoup its $30 million production budget.

 

Only two new releases next week, both remakes of stale concepts in a season overcrowded with such remakes and sequels: The A-Team and The Karate Kid.  We wouldn't be surprised to see each one come in at over $20 million, but doubt either has any sort of real staying power.  No, the box office won't really get the kick in the pants that it needs until the weekend of June 18-20 when Toy Story 3 –admittedly yet another sequel, but one that seems to be more highly anticipated – opens.  Hopefully, this will prove to be the go-to movie for families that Shrek Forever After should have been.

 

Here are the domestic box office actuals for the weekend of June 4-6, 2010:

 

Click here to see the box office chart for June 4-6, 2010...
 
Weekend Box Office - May 28-31, 2010
Written by US Townhall staff   
Monday, 31 May 2010 20:48

Shrek Forever After (Image © 2010 DreamWorks Animation SKG)For the second time since the Summer Movie Season officially kicked off on May 7, none of the new releases took the top spot at the box office for the weekend.  We waited an extra day to bring you the results due to the extended four day Memorial Day weekend, and now they're in.  Shrek Forever After, despite being the weakest entry in the series in terms of audience attendance held on to first place with no problem from either of the two new releases, Prince of Persia or Sex and the City 2.   

 

Sex and the City 2 was off noticeably from the opening of the first film in the franchise.  Two years ago, Sex 1 opened with more than $57 million, and it did it in a standard 3-day weekend.  Dropping 33% from the original does not bode well for the health of this franchise given the lack of high profile competition for female-oriented films at the theaters.  The three other chick-flicks in the top 10, Letters to Juliet, Just Wright, and Date Night have all been in theaters at least 2 weekends prior to this, so clearly the first Sex and the City film was an event that is not going to be repeated this time around.  Prince of Persia's debut was solid, but not spectacular, but as we stated last week, adaptations of video games into movies hasn't become the bankable formula that, say, comic books have.

 

Among other disappointments, MacGruber had the steepest drop in the top 10 in its second week, off a full 53% from its meager opening take.  It will likely top out at $10 million for its entire box office run, about half of what it needed to make in order to recover its $10 million budget as the share of the box office that the studio takes, the so-called "rental fee," is only about 55% of the entire box office tally.

 

Four major new releases crowd the cinemas next weekend, but none of them seem to be particularly pungent: Get Him to the Greek (starring Russell Brand and Jonah Hill), Killers (Ashton Kutcher and Katherine Heigl),  Marmaduke (Marmaduke), and Splice (Adrien Brody, Sarah Polley).  If Shrek holds well, it could possibly land at the top of the heap once again because even if it fell 40% from its three day take this weekend, it would still rake in over $26 million, and we're not sensing the general audience is on pins and needles awaiting any of the four new movies for next week.

 

Here are the Domesitc Box Office estimates for the weekend of May 28-31:

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